It's On (And More Dirty Tricks)

The Belarusian parliament yesterday announced the date for the 2006 presidential elections. Originally scheduled to be held sometime in July, they are now to be held on March 19, a full three months ahead of schedule. No doubt this is yet another attempt to disadvantage the opposition by giving it less than half the time it originally expected to have to run a campaign.

No surprise that the announcement came a day after Lukashenka met with Putin at Sochi, on the Black Sea.

The meeting was closed to the press, but the Kremlin said "energy cooperation" was high on the agenda. Diplomats said the meeting may have been used to secure Russian economic and geopolitical support for Mr Lukashenko's re-election.

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Diplomats believe that Thursday's meeting may have been used to secure cheap gas and oil for Belarus, preventing any economic upset in the near future. "Economic problems would be the spark for any unrest," said one western diplomat, adding that such a prospect looked unlikely now.

The good news from the opposition is that its various factions are finally unified around a single candidate. The New York Times explains why this has Lukashenka (and Putin) so worried.

Mr. Lukashenko is eligible to run again only because of a constitutional amendment approved in a referendum in October 2004 that abolished presidential term limits, allowing him to seek office indefinitely. That referendum approval, officially supported by 77 percent of voters, was widely denounced as a fraud. An independent survey of voters leaving polling places indicated that only 48 percent had voted in favor of abolishing term limits.

Mr. Lukashenko has responded defiantly to international criticism. With the election approaching, his government has put independent newspapers under new pressure by revoking their ability to be sold through state-owned kiosks or delivered through the state postal system.

The two houses of Parliament also toughened criminal penalties for organizing protests, joining banned organizations or speaking against the national interest. The legislation, awaiting Mr. Lukashenko's signature, would impose prison sentences of up to three years for anyone convicted of advocating the overthrow of the government and up to two years for "discrediting the country."

Parliament voted to set the election for March 19 in a hastily called session. Under the country's Constitution, twice revised by Mr. Lukashenko, the next election could have been held as late as July. But with Mr. Milinkevich's campaign showing signs of winning popular support, according to its own polls, many of his aides believed that Mr. Lukashenko would move to compress the election campaign.

The explanation given for the date change by the Central Election Commission is nothing short of comical.

Nikolai I. Lozovik, a spokesman for the Central Election Commission, said in a telephone interview that the date had been set because of more prosaic concerns: "July is the time of vacations." He added that March elections were "an old Soviet tradition."

If it's such an old Soviet tradition, why were they unofficially scheduled for July for so long? Better keep Lukashenka and the government better informed of these "old Soviet traditions," even if they're just made up on the spot.

The key here that determines how Belarusians will vote, and what their reaction will be to the inevitable massive fraud is what their opinion is on Lukashenka having a third term following the October 2004 referendum that abolished term limits. As the Times article suggests, even if Belarusians generally supported Lukashenka, they weren't overwhelmingly supportive of the referendum. This Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty report from the week before the 2004 referendum suggests the same thing.

The Lithuanian polling company Baltic Surveys, which is affiliated with the Gallup Organization, conducts opinion surveys in Belarus on a regular basis. The director general of the company, Rasa Alisauskiene, says recent polls by her firm indicate that Lukashenka would enjoy significant support if he does run again for president.

"Currently, 34.5 percent say they would vote for Lukashenka in any [future] presidential election, [while] 31.5 percent say they would prefer another candidate. Twenty-four percent have no opinion," Alisauskiene says.

However, Alisauskiene says, Belarusians appear less inclined to make changes to the Belarusian constitution necessary for Lukashenka to run again.

"During the last month, the number of people who support the referendum and changes in the constitution enabling Lukashenka to run for president for a third time has increased only slightly -- by some 2 percent. The number of those opposed did not change. The number of undecided voters remains the same -- around one-fourth of all voters. The latest figures say 35.7 percent support the referendum, 44 percent are against," Alisauskiene says.

The major reason for Lukashenka's popularity, according to the pollsters?

Alisauskiene says Lukashenka's popularity can largely be explained by the weak and divided political opposition. She says it is difficult to have a strong alternative leader in a country where the opposition is so firmly repressed and where a free media is almost nonexistent.

For the sake of the opposition, and for the sake of a democratic Belarus, 2006 better be the year where that all changes. Despite the manifold attempts by the government to disadvantage the opposition, there is far more reason for optimism now than ever before.